German Foreign Policy 02
AUG
2024
According to reports, the situation on the front is visibly deteriorating for the Ukrainian armed forces. According to this, Russia launched its most comprehensive offensive this year in Donetsk last week, has recently advanced comparatively quickly and threatens to cut off important Ukrainian supply lines. For the Ukrainian troops, says Gustav Gressel, military expert of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), "many problems now come together at once: fought units, high losses of qualified personnel, especially in the spring, lack of ammunition, lack of material (especially armored vehicles), vulnerability to Russian sliding bomb attacks, hardly any possibilities to intercept Russian reconnaissance drones." 1] "Freshly mobilized soldiers" were also "decommanded into new brigades" and not integrated into existing brigades; for them, there is a lack of "the appropriate leadership personnel". Whether the much-praised F-16 fighter jets could even operate "near the front" to prevent attacks with gliding bombs is uncertain, among other things, because of the short range of their radar. On reports about "weaknesses of the Russian army" so popular in this country, Gressel says that they deceived that Ukraine has "similar problems".
Gressel also points out that the war "also off the front ... increasingly strains the morale, resources and infrastructure of Ukraine." 2] In fact, in July, as part of a survey among the Ukrainian population, 44 percent were in favor of entering into peace negotiations with Russia. In May 2023, barely 23 percent had done this. 3] Another survey showed that the proportion of those who would be willing to achieve peace to reveal territories had risen from around 9 percent in February 2023 to 32 percent now. The proportion of those who firmly rejected any territorial waiver had fallen from around 74 percent in December 2023 to only 55 percent.[ 4] The background is, among other things, the growing burden of massive destruction of the infrastructure. At the political level, there is strong ambiguity about how a possible US President Donald Trump behaved towards Kiev.
Against this background, there are increasing signs that Ukraine can open up to negotiations on a ceasefire and a possible peace solution. After the attempt to position the Global South against Russia at an alleged "peace summit" in Switzerland failed (german-foreign-policy.com reported [5]), President Volodymyr Zelensky announced about ten days ago that he no longer ruled out talks with Russia's President Vladimir Putin [6]. In an interview with French media published on Wednesday, Zelensky now explicitly stated that he wanted a presence of Russian delegates at a next "peace summit." 7] Zelensky also said that Kiev continues to insist on the territorial integrity of Ukraine; however, this does not necessarily have to be fought for "with weapons" - diplomatic steps are also conceivable. In doing so, Zelensky approaches the option already discussed last year to freeze the front line and find it for a practical juxtude with Russia without formally recognizing the annexation of Ukrainian territories. 8] It is usually said that the territories can be regained in a similar way as the FRG once did the territory of the GDR.
In addition, Zelensky does not exclude mediation by China. Although he prefers Beijing not to mediate between Kiev and Moscow, but instead uses his influence on Russia to force it to end the war and withdraw its armed forces, Zelensky said. However, he failed to openly reject Chinese efforts to end the war by a comparison between the two sides. 9] This is important because relevant discussions have started recently and may now be continuing. Last week, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba spent the first time since the beginning of the war in Beijing for talks, which lasted a total of a few days and were classified as quite productive. Kuleba insisted only on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine; of course, these were already part of the Chinese twelve-point plan of February 2023, which Kiev had welcomed in initial reactions at the time. 10] On Tuesday, the Ukrainian government announced that it had invited China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi to further talks in Kiev; Wang had shown himself open to it. A meeting between Selenskyj and China's President Xi Jinping is no longer ruled out. 11]
Even in the West, there are cautious indications of a turning in. This results from statements by Finland's President Alexander Stubb, who has so far appeared more as a hardliner with regard to the Ukraine war. In May, he had still declared that "the only way to peace" led "over the battlefield." 12] At the weekend, however, he now judged in an interview with the French evening newspaper Le Monde that they had "arrived at a point where negotiations must begin." 13] A withdrawal of the Russian armed forces, which is also incessantly demanded in Berlin as a prerequisite for negotiations, cannot be considered "as a prerequisite," Stubb now said. It is clear that Zelensky had to make a decision regarding the areas annexed by Russia. In addition, security guarantees of Western states for Ukraine are required. These are now numerous, but from Kiev's point of view, they consistently have the disadvantage that they do not give a firm defense commitment in the event of a new Russian attack, but only promise to come together for talks within the shortest possible period and to support Kiev in a similar way as in the current war. This also applies to the German security guarantee (german-foreign-policy.com reported [14]). Of course, Ukraine also needs reconstruction aid, stated Stubb. It can be assumed that Kuleba also discussed this during his visit to Beijing.
Observers point out that the talks about a possible ceasefire are at best at an early stage and the chances of success are completely uncertain. At least indirectly, however, European politicians are now also involved; after the recent visit of Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to Beijing [15], Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni exchanged views at the beginning of the week in conversation with China's President Xi Jinping about the Ukraine war. She believes that Beijing can become "a key player" in the attempt to identify "elements of a just peace" for Ukraine, Meloni said after the conversation. 16] Nothing is known about any efforts of German government politicians to find ways to a ceasefire.
[1], [2] Tobias Mayer: Military expert on the situation in the Ukraine war: "Peace negotiations are pure speculation of beer table diplomats". tagesspiegel.de 30.07.2024.
[3] Nate Ostiller: 44% of Ukrainians believe it's time to start official peace talks with Russia, survey finds. kyivindependent.com 15.07.2024.
[4] Brendan Cole: Ukrainian Support for Ceding Territory Surges. newsweek.com 23.07.2024.
[5] S. to this goals clearly missed.
[6] Ella Strübbe: Kremlin praises Selenskyj. tagesspiegel.de 22.07.2024. S. also dispute over Viktor Orbán.
[7] Thomas d'Istria: Volodymyr Zelensky : renoncer à des territoires ukrainiens est « une question très, très difficile ». lemonde.fr 31.07.2024.
[8] P. on this The Korean War as a model and The Transition to Diplomacy (I).
[9] Thomas d'Istria: Volodymyr Zelensky : renoncer à des territoires ukrainiens est « une question très, très difficile ». lemonde.fr 31.07.2024.
[10] P. "On the side of diplomacy" (III).
[11] Dan Peleschuk: Kyiv hails dialogue with Beijing, hints at potential Zelenskiy-Xi meeting. reuters.com 30.07.2024.
[12] "Just the only way to peace leads through the battlefield." Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 10.05.2024.
[13] Philippe Ricard: Alexander Stubb, president finlandais, à propos de la guerre en Ukraine : « Nous arrivons à un point où les négociations doivent commencer ». lemonde.fr 27.07.2024.
[14] S. The dominance in Central and Eastern Europe.
[15] S. on the dispute over Viktor Orbán.
[16] Riyaz ul Khaliq, Giada Zampano: China can become 'key player' to help identify peace in Ukraine, says Italian premier. aa.com.tr 30.07.2024.